More ballots have been cast in Texas through the first seven days of early voting for the 2026 midterms than any recent midterm or presidential election year, driven by high turnout in the Democratic primary.
That turnout is fueling optimism among Texas Democrats, who are once again trying to score their first election victory for a statewide office since 1994.
Through Monday, 665,664 votes were cast in-person and by mail in the Democratic primary, compared to 593,692 cast in the Republican primary, according to unofficial data from the Texas Secretary of State. The 1,259,356 votes is higher than both the 2024 and 2020 primaries through seven days of early voting, despite turnout typically being higher in presidential election years.
“I would tell Democrats that they have every reason to feel optimistic, but that optimism should be interpreted as just meaning that they have a chance,” said Jeffrey Engle, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. “Anyone who thinks that Democrats have a cakewalk to a blue wave is deluding themselves.”
Democratic Party officials are particularly enthused by record-breaking turnout in places like Harris County, the state’s most populous base of Democratic voters, and Tarrant County, the state’s most populous purple county, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet recently won a 14-point victory in the Senate District 9 special election runoff, in a district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
“Tarrant, like Texas, often has the lowest voter participation of any urban county in the United States, so we have a large amount of room to grow that allows us to put up big numbers,” said Allison Campolo, chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party. “The fact that Tarrant County voters are waking up day after day and … putting up bigger numbers than Republicans … absolutely leads us into November with a really strong turnout and engagement.”
The competitive primary for U.S. Senate between state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, and the unpopularity of President Donald Trump among Democratic voters could both be driving the Democratic turnout, Engle said.
“We know that primaries are what draw the most enthusiastic voters, but by definition, the most enthusiastic voters are a small group,” Engle said. “What is going to be most telling about this election on the Republican side … is Republican apathy.”
Turnout in the Republican primary may lag behind Democrats, but it is still higher compared to recent midterm elections — and it’s ahead of Republican turnout through the first seven days of the 2020 presidential primary elections, according to Secretary of State data.
Dave Carney, the top political consultant for Gov. Greg Abbott, said the high turnout among Democrats is simple to explain: Crockett and Talarico are running a high profile, competitive campaign and spending millions of dollars to turn out voters.
“When was the last time the Democrats had a statewide primary where they spent millions of dollars?” Carney asked. “It hasn’t happened in my lifetime, and I’ve been (in Texas) since 1993.”
Looking at turnout in tandem with Rehmet’s January upset victory in Tarrant County, Carney said, Democratic voters are clearly energized because of Trump. However, he said Republicans will still carry the state if they campaign behind strong candidates with a strong message, because there are simply more voters in Texas that lean toward the Republicans than the Democrats.
“Those swing voters, in a general election, will decide almost 90% of the races that will be competitive come November,” Carney said.
Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, agreed that the competitive primary between Talarico and Crockett is likely driving turnout among Democrats but noted that Republicans have a competitive Senate primary of their own.
“Sure, we’re having a bit of a brawl on our side, but people are excited to show up for our candidates because they’re people that actually deliver results for working class people,” Scudder said.
Disclosure: Southern Methodist University and the Texas Secretary of State have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
Learn about The Texas Tribune’s policies, including our partnership with The Trust Project to increase transparency in news.
